All of the computer forecasts have it emerging east of the Rockies on Thursday night and headed northeastward by Friday. That system will move to the California coast by mid-week and into the central Rockies by Thursday. Late in the week, our quiet weather pattern will be disturbed by the storm parked off the British Columbia and Washington coasts (see Mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider). Potential Late Week Storm? Too Early to Tell The sun is strong enough to melt some snow, even when temperatures are cooler than freezing, but it will slow down the melting rate. The difference between getting those temperatures now and in February is that they will be close to 20 degrees colder than average. For us, it will simply feel like the conditions that have dominated the bulk of the winter with highs in the 30's today, then only in the 20's tomorrow and Wednesday. That system won't carry any significant precipitation through mid-week, but it will bring much cooler than average air into Minnesota. That will continue with the main change being the southern push of the northern low over Nunuvut, northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan. And, we haven't had any northern stream storms come close enough to us to provide a stripe of snow. Storms in the southern storm track (see Mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) have been tracking far enough to the south of Minnesota to keep us dry. The first few days of this week will work. To minimize the snowmelt flood risk, we need the current weather trend to continue (seasonably warm air moving over Minnesota, with highs in the 30's and 40's, but not the 50's or 60's) and little precipitation.Įarly Week Weather Will Continue Dry With Mid-Week Cool Down There's even the first bare area I've seen in two months on the side of the house. And, I have lost about 8 inches of snow cover since the start of last week, although there are still 8-10 inches over most of my lawn. In the street, there has been enough consistent melting to allow a river to develop under the plow piles, so the melt water is getting to the sewers instead of refreezing into a lake at the end of my driveway each night. I can certainly see the effect as my 5-6 foot high shovel piles either side of my driveway are down to about 3 feet. Some of the sun's energy has to be used to melt the snow instead of warming the air. Note that yesterday's highs were in the low to middle 40's (see 4 PM Sunday NWS WPC North American zoom-in map) in parts of Wisconsin and Iowa where there is less snow cover. The snow pack itself is partly the cause of these cooler-than-average conditions. Snow Pack Reinforcing Colder Than Average Temperatures The median date for the first 50-degree high in St. In 2018, the first 50-degree high came on April 19. In 2013, the first 50 didn't come until April 26. Cloud had its first 50-degree high delayed in those late snow years. However, the winters of 08 are among those late years, since they placed among the 10 years with the most February through April snow.Īs far as 50 degrees goes, St. Even a top 10 finish would require the snow cover to last through the middle of April, which hasn't been done since the 1970's. The records include years that the snow did not melt until the first half of April and are over 140 days. This year, that streak began on December 8 and will likely continue through the end of March, which would be 114 days. Cloud has 86 straight days with at least an inch on the ground. Cloud area has much more persistent snow cover than the Twin Cities. Paul International Airport broke its consecutive day streak of at least 1 inch on the ground at 116 days. And, it was only yesterday that Minneapolis-St. The persistent snow pack has raised the chance for the Twin Cities' first March without a 50-degree high 2001. Top 10 Latest Snow Cover Melt or Latest 50 Not Likely in St. Note, however, that these highs in the 30's with a few lower 40's have changed from nearly average during the beginning of March to 5-15 degrees colder than average now ( boundary between green and red rising with time normal highs in the middle 40's). What we need to keep the flood potential low is a continuation of these conditions. Cloud temperature graph) with few exceptions. Temperatures have generally had highs above freezing and lows below freezing (see NWS March St. Cloud's 7th snowiest March, the temperatures of March have been tempered by the deep snow cover. While the heavy precipitation on the 1st, 6th, 9th-12th, and the 16th have pushed March (18.7 inches) to St. Monday, Ma3 :40 AM Bob Weisman Meteorology Professor Saint Cloud State University Atmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences Department Slow Melt To Be Interrupt By Mid-Week Cold.Late Week Precipitation?
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